美国近期贸易政策转向及对中国影响

Recent U.S.Trade Policy Trend and Its Impact on China

在近期美国对华贸易政策充满变数的背景下,找到其不变的基本面要素并保持自身政策定力十分重要。本文剖析了近期频繁发生的贸易摩擦与之前奥巴马政府努力推动的TPP的关系,认为这些都属于贸易领域内的手段,需结合美国对华贸易目标、美国国内博弈力量对比以及区域贸易规则发展趋势分析。目前,TPP谈判仍是争夺贸易权益的重要"规则牌",特朗普政府退出TPP后,下一阶段贸易政策的关键在于是否重返TPP或转向非贸易领域热点,以巩固规则制定权和寻求更符合美国意图的全球化。未来在更多非贸易领域多热点的冲突级别和解决水平将直接影响美国贸易政策。大国崛起深刻影响着全球化格局的演变,中国构建人类命运共同体时需秉持习近平主席提出的互利共赢开放战略,在处理中美双边关系上应做好多领域接触和周旋的准备,特别是将贸易与非贸易领域打通进行通盘战略考量。

This paper aims to offer a new way of analysis,which combines recent trade frictions initiated by the U.S.and the TPP(the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement)promoted by Obama administration.TPP is still very important in terms of rules making for the U.S.,and the probabilities of reengaging with it should not be ruled out.More importantly,U.S.trade policies are becoming related with multiple hot issues in non-trade fields,with the purpose of achieving a more"America-first"version of globalization.In the next stage,the level of conflicts and effectiveness of resolution in more non-trade fields would have increasing impact on the trade policy of U.S.towards China.The rise of great power has profound influence on the evolution of globalization.In forging a community of shared future for all mankind,China should uphold mutual benefiting opening-up policy put forward by President Xi Jinping.In dealing with the Sino-U.S.bilateral relations,China should be prepared for consolidating strategies in both trade and non-trade areas.