地铁运营突发事故风险传播规律研究

Research on risk propagation laws of subway operation sudden accident

为了研究运营过程中突发事故风险在地铁路网中的传播规律,通过分析、推演突发事故风险沿单线路及换乘站的传播路径,建立了地铁运营突发事故风险传播模型。应用模型进行实例计算和讨论,研究结果表明:对于单线路运营,突发事故造成的停车数量增长速度会随着线路占用率的增大而加快,事故持续时间与停运列车数量呈正相关线性关系,列车追踪时间与停运列车数量呈逆相关线性关系;对于换乘站,突发事故会造成换乘线路列车在换乘站平均延误11.7 s,换乘站站台拥挤度随事故时间的延续而持续增大。

In order to study the propagation laws of risk of sudden accident in the subway network during the operation process,a risk propagation model of subway operation sudden accident was established through analyzing and deducing the propagation paths of risk of sudden accident along single line and transfer station,and the case calculation and discussion were carried out by applying the model. The results showed that for the operation of single line,the increase speed of the number of stopped trains caused by the sudden accident would accelerate with the increase of the line occupancy rate,and there was a positive linear relationship between the accident duration time and the number of stopped trains,whereas an inverse linear relationship between the tracking time of trains and the number of stopped trains. For the transfer station,the trains of transfer line had an average delay time of 11. 7 seconds in the transfer station caused by the sudden accident,and the congestion degree on the platform of the transfer station would increase continuously with the continuation of accident time.