冻土随机性研究现状及展望

The Present Situation and Prospect of the Study on the Randomness of Permafrost

基于国内外近些年对土体随机性问题所取得的研究成果,分别从影响冻土随机性的内外因素、冻土参数的概率分布规律和随机场计算模型等几个方面总结了随机性的研究现状及进展,取得了如下认识:(1)由于内外因素的影响,冻土物理力学参数、水分场参数等均存在很强的变异性;(2)分析总结了随机变量的概率函数推断方法,相比而言,正态信息扩散法能够有效地描述随机变量的波动性;(3)总结了随机性描述方法,发现随机场方法不仅能考虑随机变量的空间性,而且具有较好的应用前景;(4)总结分析了冻土随机场的计算方法,其中,随机有限元法能够充分考虑材料参数的随机性,具有较好的应用前景。基于以上对冻土中随机性研究现状的认识,笔者认为今后还需展开更深入的研究:对冻土中涉及的参数分布规律进行充分的研究;对冻土冰水相变过程中的随机过程进行深入分析;开展冻土水、热、力及水、热、力、盐等多耦合场、多尺度随机场的研究。

Based on the research results obtained at home and abroad on the randomness of soil in recent years,the research status and progress of randomness are summarized from the internal and external factors affecting the randomness of the permafrost,the probability distribution of permafrost parameters and the model of the airfield calculation,and the following understanding is obtained：（ 1） Because of the internal and external factors,there are strong variations in the physical and mechanical parameters of permafrost,water field parameters and so on.（ 2） The probability function inference method of random variables is analyzed and summed up. In comparison,the normal information diffusion method can effectively describe the volatility of random variables;（ 3） The stochastic description method is summed up and the random field method can not only be found in the examination of random variables. The randomness of random variables is considered,and it has good application prospect.（ 4） The calculation method of frozen soil random field is summarized and analyzed. The stochastic finite element method can fully consider the randomness of material parameters,and it has a good application prospect. Based on the above understanding of the present situation of the randomness in permafrost,the author believes that a more in-depth study is needed in the future： a full study of the distribution of parameters involved in the frozen soil,and a thorough analysis of the random processes in the process of freezing water phase change,and a research on the permafrost water,heat,force and on the multi coupling and multiscale random field on the permafrost water,heat,force and water,heat,force and salt.