京沪高铁运营初期对同通道既有铁路的客流影响分析研究

Analysis of Passenger Flow Impact on Existing Railways of the Same Channel at the Initial Stage of Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Rail Operation

高铁开通会影响同通道既有铁路客流。在阐述京沪铁路通道客流增长情况的基础上,对比分析京沪高铁运营初期对同通道既有京沪普速线、京津城际铁路和沪宁城际铁路客流的影响,认为:京沪高铁运营初期会大幅度地吸引同通道既有普速铁路的运量,而对同通道的城际铁路影响不大。

The opening of a high-speed rail will affect the passenger flow of existing railways on the same channel. On the basis of expounding the growth of passenger flow on the Beijing-Shanghai railway corridor, the impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail operation on the passenger flow between the existing Beijing-Shanghai normal speed line, the Beijing-Tianjin inter-city railway and the Shanghai-Nanjing intercity railway was compared and analyzed. In the early stage of high-speed rail operation, it will greatly attract the normal speed railway passenge of the same channel, while it will have a little impact on the inter-city railways of the same channel.