基于VAR模型技术进步、产业结构与能耗强度关系研究

Research on the Relationship Among Technological Progress, Industrial Structure and Energy Consumption Intensity Based on the VAR Mode

以1995—2015年年鉴统计数据为基础,对技术进步、产业结构与能耗强度之间建立VAR模型,使用IRF函数与方差分解分析方法对三者之间的动态关系进行分析。由脉冲响应函数分析表明:技术进步对能耗强度的冲击效应最大,但不具有持续性;由方差分解分析结果显示:技术进步对能耗强度的贡献率可以达到12.5%,产业结构贡献率为5%。最后从技术进步、产业结构调整对能耗强度的影响提出相应的建议。

Based on the yearbook statistics from 1995 to 2015, the VAR mode is established among the technological progress, industrial structure and energy consumption intensity. The dynamic relationship among the three is analyzed by using IRF function and the method of variance decomposition analysis. The impulse response function analysis shows that the impact effect of technological progress on energy consumption intensity is the largest, but it is not sustainable. The results of variance decomposition analysis show that the contribution rate of technological progress to energy consumption can reach 12.5%, and the contribution rate of industrial structure is 5%. Finally, the corresponding suggestions are put forward from the influence of technological progress and industrial structure adjustment on energy consumption intensity.