基于集对分析的公路隧道施工安全风险评价

Safety Risk Assessment for Highway Tunnel Construction Based on Set Pair Analysis

为了科学准确地评价公路隧道工程施工安全风险,从地质条件、开挖断面、隧洞施工和洞口工程4个方面筛选出14个二级评价指标,建立了隧道工程施工安全风险评价指标体系;利用粗糙集理论对隧道工程施工安全风险评价指标进行客观赋权,采用变异系数法计算风险评价指标权重;基于推广得到的集对分析理论中的四元联系数构建了隧道施工安全风险评价模型,并结合工程实例莲荷隧道进行了实证分析。结果表明,莲荷隧道施工安全风险评价等级为中度风险,评价结果与现场调研一致。评价方法能真实反映隧道工程施工风险评价过程中的不确定性,提高了隧道工程施工总体风险评价的精度;评价模型能为隧道工程施工安全提供风险预判,对同类工程的施工安全风险评价具有借鉴意义。

In order to scientifically evaluate the safety risk in the construction of highway tunnel project,a safety risk evaluation index system was established for tunnel construction,with 14 secondary indicators selected from geological conditions,excavated section,tunnel construction and tunnel engineering. A rough set theory was used for objective weighting of the safety risk evaluation index,and the coefficient of variation was adopted to calculate the weights of risk evaluation indexes. Based on the four relation parts of set pair analysis theory,a safety risk evaluation model was established for tunnel construction project and Lianhe tunnel construction was taken as an example for practical analysis.Result showed a moderate risk for Lianhe tunnel construction,which was consistent with the field investigation. It is concluded that such an evaluation method can reflect the uncertainty in the process of risk evaluation of tunnel construction,and improve the accuracy of overall risk evaluation of tunnel project. This evaluation model provides a pre-evaluation of the risk of tunnel construction in the engineering project,which may be of some reference for safety evaluation of similar engineering construction.