产业结构升级对中国经济波动的影响——基于三部门新凯恩斯模型的分析

The Effects of Industrial Structure Upgrade on Economic Fluctuations in China——An Analysis Based on the Three-sector New Keynesian Model

宏观经济由不同产业构成,其整体波动是不同产业波动的综合效果,蕴含了不同产业自身的波动以及它们之间相互作用的复杂机制。文章在考虑中国产业结构升级实际状况的基础上构建了三部门的新凯恩斯模型,分析了产业结构升级熨平经济波动的四种具体机制:粘性价格机制、部门需求转化机制、厂商价格策略互补机制和产业相对规模变动机制。通过数值模拟研究发现:考虑产业结构的三部门新凯恩斯模型明显优于单部门模型,能够较好地再现中国产业波动性大于总产出波动性的特征事实,文章模拟结果表明产业结构升级能够降低宏观经济波动20%左右。文章的研究结论意味着,政府要实现宏观经济的平稳运行应注重推动产业结构升级。

As the macro economy is composed of various sectors,its volatility is the net effect of different sectors＇ volatilities,which comprises sector volatility and the interactions between sectors. By using the three-sector New Keynesian DSGE model,this paper analyzes the four mechanisms through which the industrial structure promotes the stabilization of economic fluctuations： the sticky price mechanism,the switching demand mechanism among sectors,the mechanism of the strategic complementariness in price setting and the mechanism of compositional changes of relative size of sectors. The numerical simulations indicate that the three-sector New Keynesian DSGE model has better performance than the one-sector model,and the model can reproduce the stylized fact that the industrial volatility is greater than the total output volatility in China. In addition,industrial structure upgrade can reduce approximately 20% of the macro-economic fluctuations. The conclusions imply that the government should promote the upgrading of industrial structure to stabilize the macro economy.