中国宏观经济联立方程模型以及预测

Forecast China Macroeconomic with Union Equation Model

中国经济进入新发展阶段,为有效推进国家治理体系和治理能力的现代化,亟须对中国经济未来走势进行定量化精准预测。本文依据我国现实国情和系统化预测的目标,对相关研究理论与方法进行甄别,重点运用大型结构化宏观经济计量模型建立宏观经济预测系统,并对经济指标进行有针对性的筛选和设定,借此形成模型系统运行的变量体系,最终依据经验数据和综合研判方法给出模型的估计结果。

China＇s economy has entered a new stage of development. In order to effectively promote the modernization of its national governance and governance capabilities,it is urgent to quantitatively and precisely forecast the future trend of China＇s economy. The paper is based on the present conditions and systematical forecasting goals of China,to identify the related research theories and methods,and focused on the establishment of macroeconomic forecasting system using large structured macroeconomic econometric models targeted selection and setting of economic indicators to form a system of variables operating system model,and finally based on empirical data and comprehensive evaluation of the model given the estimated results.