企业异质性、人民币汇率变化与中国企业出口

Firm Heterogeneity,RMB Exchange Rate Changes and the Exports of China's Firms

通过建立双向固定效应模型,采用CSMAR数据库的上市公司数据和EIU数据库的宏观数据,分析企业异质性、人民币汇率变化和波动对中国企业出口的影响,并且探讨汇率变化、汇率波动和生产率对企业出口的联合效应。实证结果表明:人民币汇率水平变化对出口有显著的积极影响,而人民币汇率波动对出口则有显著的负向冲击。人民币汇率变化和生产率的交互项系数,以及汇率波动和生产率的交互项系数均不显著,说明上市公司中生产率更高的出口企业在面临汇率变化和汇率波动时并没有表现出明显的优势。

In this paper,the effect of RMB exchange rate changes and volatility on the export of Chinese firms is analyzed by establishing the two-way fixed effect model,using the CSMAR database data and the macro data of the EIU database.Compared with those studies using macroscopic data,this paper contains the control variables of the firm level,namely the firm size,the borrowing ability,the asset turnover rate and total factor productivity,and also explores the combined effects of exchange rate changes,exchange rate volatility and productivity on firms’ exports.The empirical results show that the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate has a significant positive impact on the export,while the RMB exchange rate volatility has a significant negative impact on exports;the coefficient of interaction terms of RMB exchange rate changes and productivity and the coefficient of interaction terms of exchange rate volatility and productivity are not significant,which shows that the export firms with higher productivity in listed companies do not show obvious advantages in the face of exchange rate changes and exchange rate volatility.