碳交易机制对上海市工业碳排放强度和竞争力的影响

Impact of Carbon Emission Trading Mechanism on Industrial Carbon Emission Intensity and Competitiveness in Shanghai

基于2011—2016年上海市工业行业的能源消耗数据,研究了碳交易机制建立后上海市工业行业的碳排放强度和竞争力的变化情况。结果显示:引入碳交易机制后,2014年、2015和2016年上海市工业碳排放强度的实际值比预测值分别下降了4.65%、8.89%和13.40%,但碳交易机制对工业行业直接碳排放强度的作用效果略低;参与碳交易机制导致的工业行业额外成本对行业竞争力的影响较小,在2014年、2015年和2016年只有0.59%、0.39%和0.14%,但碳价每增加10元/吨,碳交易机制对上海市工业行业竞争力的影响会增加1.6%。最后,提出了中国碳市场发展的政策建议。

This paper explores the change of carbon emission intensity and industrial competitiveness during the period of 2011-2016 in Shanghai after establishing carbon emission trading mechanism by using the energy consumption data of industries in Shanghai.The result shows as follows：after establishing carbon emission trading mechanism,industrial carbon intensity is reduced by 4.65% in 2014,8.89% in 2015 and13.4%in 2016,while there is little change in industry carbon intensity of direct emission;additional costs incurred by carbon emission trading mechanism have less effect on the industrial competitiveness,only 0.59%in 2014,0.39%in 2015 and 0.14%in 2016;however,each ten RMB per ton increase in carbon price increases the impact on industry competitiveness by 1.6%.Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions for the development of Chinese carbon market.