中国西部地区生态脆弱性评估——面向西部45个城市的探索性研究

The Evaluation of Ecological Vulnerability in Western China:An Exploratory Analysis Based on 45 Cities in Western China

围绕生态脆弱性的基本内涵,构建了由"敏感性—弹性—压力—恢复力"四个领域组成的生态脆弱性评估模型。在该模型基础上形成了包含231个具体指标的指标池,运用客观德尔菲法、隶属度分析法、相关性分析法以及变异系数分析法等指标筛选法,最终得出生态脆弱性评估指标体系,并通过熵值法计算指标权重。以覆盖西部所有生态区类型的45个城市为评估样本,基于2013-2016年的相关数据,通过功效系数法计算十八大以来中国西部生态脆弱程度。评估结果显示,整体上中国西部生态脆弱程度介于"中度——重度"脆弱性。从具体领域来看,生态敏感性、生态弹性、生态压力、生态恢复力分别处于中度、中度、中度和低度,意味着不仅西部生态环境先天基础不高、外界干扰较强,其自身抵抗干扰能力和后天外界施以"援助"应对干扰能力依然较差。从具体城市间差异来看,行政级别越高、区位优势越强、经济发展程度越高地区的生态脆弱性程度越低,体现了生态治理领域的马太效应。

As for the overall improvement of our ecological problems,the report of the 19th CPC National Congress shows that“The awareness and initiative of the whole party and the country in implementing the concept of green development have been significantly enhanced,and the phenomenon of neglecting environmental protection has obviously changed”.However,from the practice in recent years,the ecological problems caused by the ecological fragility in western China are still frequent.The western region plays an important role in the overall sustainable development of our country,therefore it has the important strategic significance of strengthening the improvement of ecological vulnerability in western China.The management scientist Magretta once said ＂it can not be managed without evaluation＂,which means if we want to further promote the governance of ecological fragility in the west,the first thing that we should do is measuring its status quo precisely.Given this,the paper use a series of scientific methods to measure the ecological vulnerability in western China and find that it is still in the ＂moderate vulnerability＂.The result shows that the capacity and effect of ecological management in the western local governments are still relatively limited after the ＂five in one＂ strategy put forward by the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.In the future,the government should accelerate the reform of ecological civilization construction from the perspective of coordinated governance and overall governance in western China.