中国服务业出口贸易结构与趋势解析——基于全球价值链和世界投入产出表的考察

Analysis on the export trade structure and trend of China's service industry:Based on the global value chain and the world input-output table

基于2000—2014年世界投入表(WIOTs)时间序列数据和WWZ分解模型对中国服务业出口贸易结构与趋势的解析结果表明:中国服务业出口贸易主要以中间产品为主,且中间产品的增长快于最终产品;国内增加值主要以最终出口与被直接进口国吸收的中间出口值为主;返回增加值比例相对较小,但呈上升趋势;国外增加值占比越来越低,中国服务业参与全球价值链程度还不高。就三类服务业而言,生产性服务业的返回并最终被本国吸收的国内增加值占比从2000年的0.98%增至2014年的2.78%;消费性服务业被国外吸收的国内增加值占比从2000年的89.64%上升至2014年91.37%;公共服务业被国外吸收的中间品出口增加值占比从2000年的45.38%上升至2014年的53.60%。

This paper uses the time series data of WIOTs from 2000 to 2014 and WWZ decomposition model to decompose and analyze the export trade structure and trend of China＇s service industry. The results show that： China＇s service industry exports are mainly based on intermediate products, and the growth rate of intermediate products＇ export trade is faster than that of the final product; the domestic value added in China＇s service industry exports is mainly based on the final exports and the intermediate export values absorbed by the direct importing countries; the proportion of return value added in China＇s service industry exports is relatively small but in a trend rising gradually; value added ratio of China＇s service industry exports outside China is lower and lower, which means that China＇s service industry is not yet involved in the global value chain. In terms of three kinds of services, the return of producer services eventually absorbed by its own domestic value-added proportion increased from 0.98% in 2000 to 2.78% in 2014. The share of domestic value-added absorbed by the consumer service industry abroad increased from 89.64% in 2000 to 91.37% in 2014. The value of the public service industry absorbed by foreign countries has increased from 45.38% in 2000 to 53.60% in 2014.