以消费为指标的中国政府财政支出方向

The Direction of China's Government Expenditure Based on Consumption

近年来,如何调整财政支出方向从而有效刺激消费成为中国面临的一大挑战。从理论和实证两方面可以探究政府财政支出对消费的影响,进而以消费为指标为政府财政支出提供明确方向。理论研究表明,政府生产性财政支出对促进消费增长具有积极影响,宏观税率与消费增长呈倒U型关系。根据理论研究结果,利用2006—2015年的数据,使用面板分位数回归模型可以研究生产性财政支出对消费的影响。结果显示,在20%分位点上,生产性财政支出对居民消费具有显著正影响,而在50%和80%点处不具有显著影响,即政府生产性财政支出能够促进贫困地区居民消费,对中等收入地区和富裕地区的促进作用不明显。因此,政府财政支出的主要方向为贫困地区。

How to adjust the direction of fiscal expenditure and effectively stimulate consumption is a major challenge facing China. This paper probes into the influence of government expenditure on consumption from both theoretical and empirical aspects,and then provides a clear direction for government expenditure on consumption.Theoretical research shows that government productive fiscal expenditure has positive influence on consumption growth,and the macro tax rate and consumption growth are inverted U. Based on theoretical study,this paper uses the data from 2006 to 2015 and the panel quantile regression model to study the influences of productive fiscal spending on consumption. The results show that to 20% quantile,productive expenditure has a significant positive influence on the consumer,and at 50% and 80% point has no significant effect,namely the government productive expenditure can promote residents＇ consumption in the poor areas,while the promoting effect in the areas of middleincome and rich areas is not obvious. Therefore,the main direction of government expenditure is poor area.