云南省水资源潜力与社会经济发展耦合协调关系分析

Evaluation and Coupling Coordination Analysis on Water Resources Potentials and Economic and Social Development in Yunnan Province

基于2000—2014年云南省水资源开发利用与经济社会发展现状,构建水资源潜力与经济社会发展各自的综合评价模型及二者的协调度模型,以探讨云南省水资源潜力与经济社会发展的变化与二者的协调关系。得出以下结论:云南省的水资源开发利用潜力和经济社会发展总体呈现上升趋势,水资源总量的变化趋势较大程度影响了云南省水资源潜力综合指数的变化;云南省水资源潜力指数和经济社会发展指数的耦合度在2003年后趋于平稳,协调度呈缓慢上升趋势,后期协调度高于耦合度;典型年份耦合度处于较低水平向拮抗阶段过渡,协调度由低度向良好协调阶段转变,近15 a来耦合空间差异变动趋于稳定,协调性变好;云南省7个片区的经济社会发展的空间差异较大,呈现出两级分化的格局。

Based on data about economic and social development and water resources of Yunnan Province from 2000 to 2014, a coupling evaluation index system of water resources potentials with economic and social development is constructed, the relationship between them is discussed in this study. The evaluation results are as the followings： Water resources potentials with economic and social development increases, water resources potentials comprehensive index be affected by water resources to a large extent; The coupling degrees of water resources potentials with economic and social development of Yunnan Province has tended to be stable after 2003,the coordination degrees has shown a low upward trend, the later coordination degrees is higher than coupling degrees; Among the four typical years, it has transitioned form the low to antagonistic state in the coupling degrees, it has transitioned form the low to high state in the coordination degrees. Nearly fifteen years, the variation of coupling spatial variation tends to be stable; There is a big difference in space in economic and social development with seven districts of Yunnan Province, the spatial unipolar economic development pattern has been formed.