人口红利、劳动力成本与体育用品出口贸易竞争力关系的实证研究

Relationship between Population Dividend,Labor Cost and Export Trade of Sports Goods Competitiveness

人口红利下降和劳动力成本上升使劳动密集型的体育用品制造业发展陷入困境,本研究通过构建多元线性回归模型和岭回归分析,实证研究人口红利和劳动力成本对体育用品出口贸易竞争力的影响,提出体育用品制造业的发展建议。研究结果表明:体育用品出口贸易仍具有极强比较优势;总抚养比上升和制造业劳动力成本上升对体育用品出口贸易竞争力具有非常显著的负向影响,劳动人口总量对体育用品出口贸易竞争力具有负向影响,总体单位劳动力成本对体育用品出口贸易竞争力具有正向影响;制造业劳动力成本对体育用品出口贸易竞争力的降低效应强于总抚养比和劳动人口总量。

The decline in the demographic dividend and the rise in labor costs bring labor -intensive sports goods manufacturingindustry in trouble. This research built a multiple linear regression model and ridge regression to research into thedemographic dividend and labor costs influence on sports goods export trade competitiveness. The results showed that theexport trade of sports goods still had strong comparative advantage; The rise in total dependency rate and rising laborcosts had a significant negative influence on the export trade competitiveness of sports goods, The total working populationhad negative influence on the export trade competitiveness of sports goods, the total unit labor cost had positive influenceon the export trade competitiveness of sports goods ; The manufacturing labor costs had stronger lowering effect onthe export trade competitiveness of sports goods than total dependency rate and total working population＊