我国创新、创业与就业互动关系的地区异质性考察——基于VAR模型的实证分析

Regional Heterogeneity of Interaction between Innovation,Entrepreneurship and Employment in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model

在"大众创业、万众创新"新时期,探寻"双创"与就业三者之间的内在关联有助于促进经济增长和就业问题的解决。选取我国东、中、西地区的相关数据,利用向量自回归模型(VAR模型)研究各地区创新创业对就业的影响,结果发现:创新、创业和就业三者之间存着紧密的联系,创新可以促进创业和就业,而创业也能在长远时期拉动就业增长;这种互动关系存在着明显的区域差异,东部地区体现得突出,创新对创业的平均贡献率达到49.96%、对就业的平均贡献率为36.53%,创业对就业的平均贡献率为29.42%,而中西部地区体现得相对较弱,西部、中部地区相对应的结果分别是25.16%、35.03%、24.96%和24.93%、32.47%、21.46%。

In the new period of ＂ Mass Entrepreneurship,Mass Innovation＂,it is helpful to probe into the inner relationship between mass entrepreneurship and innovation and employment,to promote economic growth and solve the problem of employment. This paper selects the relevant data of east,middle and west regions of China,studies the influence of innovation and entrepreneurship on employment by using vector autoregressive model（ VAR model）. The results show that,there is a close link between innovation,entrepreneurship and employment,innovation can promote entrepreneurship and employment,while entrepreneurship can pull employment growth in the long run. There are obvious regional differences in this kind of interaction,which is evident in the eastern region. The average contribution rate of innovation to entrepreneurship is 49. 96%,the average contribution rate to employment is 36. 53% and the average contribution rate of entrepreneurship to employment is 29. 42%,while the central and western regions are relatively weak. The corresponding results in the western and central regions respectively are 25. 16%,35. 03%,24. 96% and 24. 93%,32. 47%,21. 46%.