2014年影响宁波市上呼吸道疾病门诊量的气象条件分析

Analysis of meteorological conditions affecting the upper respiratory outpatients in Ningbo City

目的为主动有效防御上呼吸道疾病的发生及开展医疗气象预报等提供基础研究数据。方法利用2014年宁波市某三甲医院和儿童医院的逐日上呼吸道门诊病例资料及同期气象资料,选取气温、气压、日照、湿度、霾日等气象因子,运用曲线拟合法和主成分分析法分析了宁波市上呼吸道疾病的特征及与气象条件的关系。结果宁波市上呼吸道疾病门诊量具有深秋到初春明显偏高的季节特征,12月和1月达到峰值,其次为3月和11月;气温对上呼吸道疾病的影响最明显,儿童在气温变化次日即可发病,成人会推延1~2天。持续高气压、低温、低湿度、少日照比单日对上呼吸道疾病的影响更为明显,表现为持续时间更长,发病率更高,持续5天最低气温与咳嗽相关系数高达0.555;当冬季连续5天平均气温8℃、最高气温15℃、最低气温4℃以上时,门诊量比较稳定,当平均气温5℃、最高气温10℃、最低气温0℃以下时,门诊量明显增加,超过稳定状态的1倍多;主成分第一特征向量f_1在-2.5~3.0之间门诊量稳定,f_1在-5.5^-2.5时明显下降,f_1低于-5.0时呈跳跃性增加,是稳定状态的2倍左右。结论气象因素是引发上呼吸道疾病的主要原因之一,连续阴霾天气对疾病的影响尤为明显。

Objective To actively and effectively prevent upper respiratory diseases and providing basic research for medical meteorological forecast.Methods Using daily upper respiratory outpatients from a third-grade class-A hospital,a children’s hospital and meteorological data of 2014 in Ningbo City,to analyze the relationship between upper respiratory outpatients and meteorological factors including emperature, pressure,humidity,sunshine,haze and others by the curve fitting method and principal component analysis method.Results The upper respiratory outpatient in Ningbo City had a season distribution feature which was significantly more during autumn to early spring.The most was in Dec and Jan,and the secondly in Mar and Nov for children.Temperature was the most obvious impact of upper respiratory outpatients.Children would be ill the next day of temperature changed significantly,and adult would postpone one-two days.In addition,continuous high pressure,low temperature,low humidity and less sunshine obviously influenced on upper respiratory diseases than single day.The longer the time,the greater the impact.Correlation coefficient between minimum temperature of five consecutive days and cough was 0.555.In winter,outpatients were stable when average temperature was above 8 ℃,or maximum temperature was above 15 ℃,or minimum temperature was above 4 ℃ during five consecutive days.Outpatients were increased significantly to more than 1 times the usual when average temperature was below 5 ℃,or maxinum temperature was below 10 ℃,or minimum temperature was below 0 ℃ during five consecutive days.Outpatients were stability when f1 was from-2.5 to 3.0,which was the first eigenvector of principal component,and outpatients were decreased obviously when f1 was from-5.5 to-2.5,and outpatients were hopping increases to about 2 times the usual when f1 was below-5.0.Conclusion Meteorological factors are one of the main causes of upper respiratory diseases,and there will be obvious relationship in continuous haze day.