1960-2012年祁连山东段古浪河流域极端气候事件研究

Extreme climate research on Gulang River basin in eastern Qilian Mountains during 1960-2012

全球变暖引发极端气候事件频发、加剧,是干旱区研究关注的热点科学和社会问题。通过分析祁连山东段古浪河流域1960-2012年日气温、降水数据,研究表明:古浪河流域升温显著,作物生长期、夏日高温日数和热持续日数均在频次和幅度上显著增加,显示出对全球变暖的良好响应。降水存在准3年和准8年的高频波动特征,强降水对年降水影响日趋显著,普通日降水强度则反映出区域差异性,持续干燥日数显示本区呈现湿润化。上述认识可为古浪河流域水资源研究及生态服务提供科技支撑。

The increasing extreme climate events at the global scale are causing a series of scientific and societal issues under the background of global warming. The variations of daily temperature and precipitation of Gulang River basin in eastern Qilian Mountains showed that increasing frequency and amplitude of growing season length（GSL）,summer days（SU25） and consecutive warm days（CWD） as well as prominent warming indicated the good response to global warming. The quasi-3-year and quasi-8-year periodicities of precipitation in whole basin were identified by wavelet analysis. Extreme wet day precipitation（R95 P） is becoming more contribution for annual precipitation,but the simple daily intensity index（SDII） presented regional diversity. The consecutive dry days（CDD） revealed that humidification is going prominent. This work provided the science and technology support to water source and ecological services in Gulang River basin.