基于能值-生态足迹模型的湖北省生态安全评价

Ecological security assessment of Hubei Province based on the emergy-ecological footprint model

基于能值分析法改进的生态足迹模型,对1997-2014年湖北省生态经济系统长时间序列可持续发展趋势和生态安全状况进行了定量分析。结果表明:研究期内湖北省多年平均能值密度为1.286×1015sej·hm-2,人均能值生态承载力从1.18 hm2下降到1.10 hm2,人均能值生态足迹由4.50 hm2增加到8.72 hm2。从1998年起湖北省人均生态足迹逐年扩大,以年均6.2%的速度快速增长,一直处于生态赤字状态,且赤字增大趋势明显;生态压力指数从3.82增长到7.95,生态安全形势严峻。湖北省生态环境系统不足以维持自身经济社会快速发展,其中城市建设发展和重工业的能耗压力大以及进出口总额剧增是造成区域生态赤字的主要原因。

Based on the emergy-ecological footprint model,the ecological security of Hubei Province was quantitatively evaluated from 1997 to 2014. The results revealed that the average annual emergy density in Hubei Province was calculated as 1. 286 1015 sej hm-2 during the study period. The emergy ecological capacity per capita slowly decreased from 1. 18 hm2 to 1. 10 hm2,with the average value of 1. 12 hm2,while the emergy ecological footprint per capita rapidly increased from 4. 50 hm2 to 8. 72 hm2,with the average value of 6. 26 hm2. The ecological footprint per capita has been increased with a growth of 6. 2% since 1998,which caused a trend gradually increase of the ecological deficit. Hubei Province has been in a state of ecological deficit since 1997 and the situation was gradually getting worse. Therefore,the ecological environment system was insufficient to maintain rapid economic and social development. The ecological pressure index increased from 3. 82 to 7. 95,which suggested the problems in ecological safety needed to be solved urgently. The giant pressures from the urban construction and the heavy industry with high-level energy consumption,as well as the sharply increase of the total export-import volume,were the principal factors,which prompted the growth of the local ecological deficit.