制造业结构、规模与研发投入对生产性服务业发展的影响——基于随机前沿模型的分析

Influence of manufacturing structure,scale and R&D investment on the development of producer services:analysis based on stochastic frontier model

本文阐述了在前后向联系的基础上,制造业结构、规模与技术水平影响生产性服务业发展的机理,并利用中国2005—2014年30个省份的面板数据和随机前沿模型对理论进行了实证检验。实证结果表明:技术密集型制造业的发展对现代生产性服务业有显著的正向推动作用,但资本密集型制造业占比的上升对现代生产性服务业无显著影响;通过前后向关联,制造业规模的扩大和研发投入的增加可以对现代生产性服务业产生溢出效应;在传统生产性服务业的发展过程中,制造业结构、规模与研发投入发挥的作用都不显著。制造业对传统生产性服务业的低需求是造成这一现象的重要原因。本文认为与制造业前后向关联不强、技术交流与合作不紧密是我国生产性服务业发展滞后的重要原因,并提出相应的意见建议。

This paper introduces the mechanism of structure, scale and technological level of manufacturing affecting the development of producer services based on the backward and forward linkage theory using panel data and stochastic frontier models in 30 provinces of China and carries out an empirical test of from 2005 to 2014. The empirical results show that ： the development of technology-intensive manufacturing has a significant positive effect on the mod- em producer services, but the increase in the proportion of capital intensive manufacturing has no significant impact on the modem producer services; through forward and backward correlation, the expansion of the scale and the in- crease of R＆D investment of manufacturing industry can produce the spillover effect on the modem productive serv- ice ; in the process of the development of the traditional productive service industry, the role of manufacturing struc- ture, scale and R＆D investment are not significant. The low demand of manufacturing industry for traditional pro- ducer service industry is an important reason for this phenomenon. Lastly, this paper thinks the weak backward and forward linkage and technical exchanges between manufacturing and producer services are the main reason for slow growth of producer services . On this basis, we made some relevant suggestions.