“低增长、低通胀”驱动了我国宏观经济杠杆率的快速上升吗

Has “Low Growth, Low Inflation” Driven the Rapid Rise of China's Macro-Economy Leverage Ratio

宏观杠杆率方程的估计结果显示,经济增长和通货膨胀与宏观杠杆率之间存在显著的负相关关系,并且在金融危机之后,经济增速放缓和通货膨胀率下降对宏观杠杆率的驱动能力大幅增强,这意味着当前阶段"低增长、低通胀"的经济格局驱动了我国宏观经济杠杆率的快速上升。而脉冲响应函数的结果显示,经济增速提高和通货膨胀率上升在短期和中期均具有显著的"去杠杆"作用,并且在金融危机之后,经济增长冲击在短期内的"去杠杆"作用大幅增强。此外,当前阶段经济增长冲击对宏观杠杆率的影响速度最快,短期影响程度最大,且长期中副作用最小;而通货膨胀冲击的影响效应虽然有些许减弱,但长期中"加杠杆"幅度也最小。可见,当前阶段通过促进经济增长、提高通货膨胀率来降低宏观杠杆率确实是一种极为有效的方式。

The result of the estimation of the macro-economy leverage ratio equation shows that there is a significant negative correlation between economic growth and inflation and leverage ratio. In the wake of the financial crisis, the slowdown of economic growth and the decrease of inflation rate have greatly enhanced the capacity to drive the macro leverage ratio, which means that at the current stage the economic pattern of ＂low growth and low inflation＂has driven the rapid rise of China’s macro-economy leverage ratio. While the result of the impulse response function shows that both the increase of economic growth and the rise of inflation rate in the short term and medium term have a significant＂de-leveraging＂ effect. And after the financial crisis, the de-leverage effect of the economic growth impact in the short term has been greatly enhanced. In addition, at the present stage, the impact of economic growth on the macro-economic leverage rate has the fastest speed, and the degree of the impact is the biggest in the short-term, while the side effect is the smallest in the long-term. Although the impact of inflation is slightly weakened, the ＂leverage-plus＂ range is the minimum in the long term. Therefore, at present it is really an effective way to reduce the leverage rate by promoting economic growth and increasing inflation rate.