摘要
提出机械系统的失效动态相关可靠性可采用动态Vine Copula模型进行描述。采用Vine Copula函数将复杂多失效相关的机械系统可靠性问题转换为对多个二维动态Copula函数进行分析。利用非参数估计算法,提出经验分布函数-局部极大似然两步法估计动态Copula函数中的时变参数,从而建立动态Vine Copula模型来描述多失效动态相关机械系统的可靠性;并重点对机械系统的串联体系可靠性进行建模与分析,进而对机械系统的可靠度进行求解。最后通过单级减速器系统的算例验证了所述方法的合理性及有效性。
The dynamic reliability of mechanical system failure can be described by dynamic Vine Copula model. The Vine Copula function is used to transform the reliability problems of complex and multiple failures related to the analysis of multiple two-dimensional dynamic Copula functions; using the nonparametric estimation algorithm, the empirical distribution function-local maximum likelihood two-step method is proposed to estimate the time-varying parameters in the dynamic Copula function; next, a dynamic Vine Copula model is established to describe the reliability of multi-failure dynamic related mechanical systems. The study focus on the mechanical system of the series system reliability modeling and analysis, then solve out the reliability of the mechanical system. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the rationality and validity of the method.
作者
胡启国
周松
Hu Qiguo;Zhou Song(School of Electro-mechanical ＆ Automobile Engineering,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Ch0ngqing 400074,Chin)
出处
《机械科学与技术》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第8期1149-1155,共7页
Mechanical Science and Technology for Aerospace Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51375519)
重庆市基础科学与前沿技术研究专项基金项目(cstc2015jcyjBX0133)资助
关键词
机械系统
VINE
COPULA函数
非参数估计算法
失效动态相关
可靠度计算
mechanical properties
function
failure modes
failure analysis
parameter estimation
algorithms
normal distribution
maximum likelihood estimation
time varying systems
dynamic models
mathematical models
reliability analysis
calculations
