三线城市住宅商品房房价泡沫风险实证分析——以南宁市为例

Empirical Analysis on the Price Bubbling Risk of Commercial Housing in Third-line Cities——Taking Nanning as an Example

基于2003—2016年的相关数据，选取以南宁市为例的三线城市住宅商品房的房价收入比、房价租金比和空置率指标予以分析，并构建VAR模型实证分析房价与上述指标的关系．结果表明：①南宁住宅市场存在投机炒作现象，房价泡沫风险突显．房价收入比从2003年的5上升至2016年的12．6、房价租金比从2003年持续上涨至2016年的281．02，存在严重泡沫风险；空置率从2015年的166％下降到2016年的138％，表明以南宁市为例的三线城市还在享受去库存的优惠政策；②房价与房价收入比、房价租金比、空置率之间存在长期均衡关系，且房价与房价收入比、房价租金比之间存在单向的Granger因果关系，与空置率之间存在双向的Granger因果关系．在此基础上，针对高房价及房价泡沫风险提出相应的对策建议，以期为新时代背景下房地产市场的平稳健康发展提供借鉴参考．

Based on the relevant data from 2003 to 2016, this paper analyzes the priceto-income ratio, price-to-rent ratio and vacancy rate of residential real estate in the third- tier cities such as Nanning City. And Constructing VAR Model empirically analyzes the relationship among house prices and the above indicators.The results show that： （1） Nanning housing market exists the phenomenon of speculation, highlighting the price bubbling risk. The price-to-income ratio has risen from 5 of 2003 to 12.6 of 2016, and the price-to-rent ratio has risen continuously from 2003 to 281.02 in 2016, which poses a serious bubble risk. The vacancy rate dropped sharply from 166% in 2015 to 138% in 2016, which indicates the third- tier cities such as Nanning, are still enjoying the policy bonus that is incentive to go to the stock; （2） There is a long-term equilibrium relationship among house price to price-to-income, price-to-rent, and vacancy rate. And there is a one-way Granger causality between house price to price-to-income, as well as price-to-rent ratio, and a two-way Granger causality to vacancy rate. On this basis, we put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions for the high housing prices and the housing price bubble risk in order to provide a reference for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market in the new era.