美国征收铝产品关税的潜在影响及对策

The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on aluminium products and its countermeasures

2018年初,美国发布了对8种进口铝产品征收10%的从价税的公告,给世界各国特别是中国的铝工业带来诸多潜在影响。本文以该公告中涉及的铝产品为研究对象,分析了美国铝产品的贸易格局,考察了美国征收铝关税的潜在影响,并提出中国的若干应对策略。研究显示:①造成美国铝贸易逆差的关键产品是能耗和环境负荷高但附加值低的未锻轧铝(铝锭),而在其他7种附加值较高的铝产品中,美国的合计贸易额处于顺差状态,这是由美国自身的产业结构造成的。将造成美国铝产品贸易逆差的责任推给中国及其他国家的做法是荒谬和不负责任的;②美国征收铝产品关税的真正目的可能是通过缩减进口量来加强国内高附加值铝产品的生产经营能力。存在贸易逆差的铝箔、铝丝和其他铝产品,以及贸易量较大的铝板带对美出口难度将会越来越大;③短期看,中国生产铝箔、铝丝、其他铝产品和铝板带的企业将面临较大困难;长期看,铝关税可能仅仅是美国贸易保护政策的开始,中国政府和企业必须做好打持久战的准备。近期,中国应采取有针对性的贸易报复措施,联合其他国家和在此次关税变化中可能受到较大负面影响的美国国内相关产业共同对特朗普政府施压。长期,中国要继续加强产品研发和自主创新能力,加快弥补产业链和技术短板,提高应对国际形势影响中国经济发展的能力。

In the early 2018, the Trump government announced a 10% levy on eight aluminum products, which will result in significant impacts on many counties, especially China. This paper analyzed the U. S. trade of aluminum products and the potential impacts of this tariff policy, and further attempted to propose several strategies for China. The study demonstrates that：（1）Unwrought aluminum（which is energy and emissions intensive and low value-added） is the main product resulting in the trade deficit in the United States aluminum industry. However, U. S. has trade surplus in the total trade of the other seven aluminum products. It is thus the production capacity of the United States itself rather than that of China that resulted in U. S. trade deficit of aluminum products. It would be absurd and irresponsible to push China and other countries to blame for the trade deficit with the US aluminium product.（2） The real purpose of Trump＇s aluminum tariff is probably to improve the production capacity and to impose trade protection of high value-added aluminum products, such as aluminum foil, aluminum wire, other aluminum products and aluminum plate and strip.（3） In the short term, Chinese enterprises that produce aluminum foil, aluminum wire, other aluminum products, and aluminum plate, strip, and foil will face great difficulties. In the long term, Aluminum tariffs may just be the beginning of the U. S.trade protection policy. The Chinese government and enterprises should prepare for a probably long trade conflict. In the short time, trade retaliation measures should be taken, and it is necessary to develop collaboration with countries, international organizations, and industries in the U. S. that may suffer losses from the Trump＇s tariff policy. In the long run, Chinese aluminum industry should strengthen its product development capacity and its independent innovation ability, as well as to enhance its industrial chain and technology so as to reduce the potential negative influence of the changing international trade policies and situation.