SDR权重对成员国经济增长影响及人民币入篮的研究

A study of the effects of SDR weights on the economic growth of SDR members based on RMB’s participation in the SDR basket

本文研究SDR权重对入篮国家及周边经济的影响，发现：SDR权重增加有利于成员国经济增长及其抗风险能力的提高，出口增长，固定资本形成额增长和外汇储备份额增长可促进其经济增长，反之亦然；欧元区，英国和日本的经济波动风险均大于其所在区域的非成员国的对应风险；美国的经济波动风险不仅低于其它SDR成员也低于非成员国，证实了美元霸权的存在，给出了美国利用其经济霸权，将经济风险转嫁给其它SDR成员国和非成员国的证据．SDR成员的货币权重与经济增长在危机前无显著相关性，在危机后显著正相关．此外，日本和欧元区SDR权重增加将促进其经济增长，而提高英国SDR权重无助其经济增长且会抑制欧元区经济发展．日本滞后期的SDR，权重增加将促进其经济增长，而美国滞后期的SDR权重增加将使其经济增长受阻．最后．对人民币加入SDR带来的机遇，风险与挑战进行了分析．

We examine the effects of SDR weights on tile economic growth of SDR members and their neighboring countries. The increase in SDR weights produces a growth in economics and anti-risk capacity; the growth of exports, fixed capital formation and foreign exchange reserve share also promotes the economic growth. Among the four member economies, Eurozone, the UK and Japan have higher economic fluctuation risk than non-SDR members in their neighborhoods; the United States has smaller economic fluctuation risk than both SDR and non-SDR members. This proves the existence of dollar hegemony： the United States transfers its economic risk to other SDR members and non-SDR members through economic hegemony. The relationship between SDR weights and the economic growth of SDR members before and after the economic crisis is different： SDR weights were not significantly correlated with economic growth before the economic crisis; but after the economic crisis, the correlation turned out to be positive and signifieant. Moreover, the increase of SDR weights promotes the economic growth for Japan and Eurozonc; as for the UK, the increase of its SDR weight does not benefit its economic growth and inhibits the economy of Eurozone. Finally, we analyze the opportunities, risks and challenges after RMB joins the SDR basket.