少子老龄化背景下全面二孩政策与鼓励生育模拟分析

Aging with Fewer Children and Encouraging Childbirth in China under the Background of Universal Two-child Policy

人口老龄化是我国人口问题的一个核心议题,按照目前数据推算,我国将在2028年前后进入少子老龄化社会,且在2037年前后几乎不可避免地进入超少子化-超高龄化并存的人口年龄结构状态。全面二孩政策实施虽在一定程度上能够提升我国少儿人口比重、拉低老年人口比重,但数据模拟显示,在21世纪40年代前,这种提升、拉低效果有限。全面二孩政策有助于提升少子老龄化背景下我国应对养老问题的能力;在鼓励生育情形下,超少子化-超高龄化并存的人口年龄结构状态或于21世纪40年代后演变为少子化-高龄化并存的人口年龄结构状态。此外,全面二孩政策调整对少子老龄化背景下的社会经济发展更具积极意义,积极鼓励家庭生育具有很强的现实需求。

Although universal two - child policy could increase the proportion of children and decrease the proportion of elderly population to some extent, but before 2040s, the effect is limited. In the future, China will enter into an aging society around 2028 year, and it will almost inevitably enter into the age structure of super fewer children and super aging exist side by side at the age of 2037 year. It would become fewer children and aging exist side by side after 2040s under the background of universal two - child policy. In addition, the universal two - child policy will not only help to improve the ability of coping with pension problems to some context, but also has a more positive significance for the social and economic development under the background of the aging of children in China. In the future, it is necessary to actively encourage childbirth.