基于粗糙集理论的PPP项目风险评估研究

Risk Assessment Research of PPP Project Based on Rough Set theory

PPP项目风险评估是PPP项目成功与否的一个重要因素,正确的风险评估有利于合作双方对风险及利益合理分配,而风险评估主要来自专家的主观程度评价。文章采用粗糙集理论来处理这种难以量化的程度评价,运用文献分析法与实际PPP项目案例相结合的方法,对PPP项目存在的风险体系进行分析以得出PPP项目的修正风险程度评估。结果表明利用粗糙集理论模型对PPP项目的风险评估有实践价值,完善了PPP项目风险评估的方法。

PPP project risk assessment is an important factor in the success of the PPP project and the correct risk assessment is conducive to the rational allocation of risks and the distribution of benefits between the two parties.However,the risk assessment is mainly the subjective evaluation of experts which is difficult to quantify.In this paper,Rough Set Theory is adopted to deal with this problem,and the document analysis method is combined with actual PPP project cases to analyze the risk system existing in the PPP project to obtain a revised risk assessment of the PPP project.The results show that the adoption of Rough Set Theory model has practical value for the evaluation of the risk assessment of PPP projects and can improve the PPP project assessment methods.