劳动力转移率与城乡收入差距对高储蓄率的影响——基于1996—2015年省级面板数据的实证研究

THE EFFECT OF LABOR TRANSFER RATES AND URBAN-RURAL INCOME GAP ON HIGH SAVING RATES——An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data from 1996 to 2014

近年来,我国持续增加的城乡居民高储蓄率成为中国经济增长模式的典型特征,正确分析这一现象有利于我国进行合理的宏观调控。本文应用1996—2015年省级面板数据,采用广义最小二乘法,构建双向固定效应模型,研究劳动力转移率和城乡收入差距对城乡居民储蓄率的影响。实证研究发现,劳动力转移率和城乡收入差距对城乡居民储蓄率均有显著影响,其中对农村储蓄率的影响尤为明显。引入劳动力转移率和城乡收入差距的交叉项可以发现,通过提高劳动力流动过程中农村居民获取的非农收入,能有效弥补城乡收入不平衡。劳动力转移规模和转移速度共同通过收入差距的缩小对农村储蓄率存在间接影响机制。在此基础上,本文进一步提出完善公共基础设施和投资环境、缩小城乡收入差距的政策建议。

High saving rates of urban and rural residents in China have become a typical feature of China＇s economic growth and economic structure transformation. Based on the provincial panel data from 1996 to 2014, this paper adopts a two-way fixed effect model to study the effect of labor transfer rates and urban-rural income gap on urban and rural residents＇ saving rates. We find that labor transfer rates and ur- ban-rural income gap both have a significant impact on saving rates of both urban and rural residents. In particular, the impact on rural residents＇ saving rates is much more significant. By introducing the cross term of labor transfer rate and urban-rural income gap, we find that urban-rural income gap is narrowed down through the process of labor transfer, including transfer scale and transfer speed. It impacts urbanrural income gap first, and then has an effect on the rural residents＇ saving rates. On this basis, we put forward some suggestions on how to improve the public infrastructure and investment environment, and narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas.