福建省新型城镇化与旅游业协调发展机制的计量研究

An Econometric Study on the Coordinated Development of New Urbanization and Tourism in Fujian Province

基于协同发展作用机理,构建福建省新型城镇化系统与旅游产业系统的评价指标体系,采用耦合协调度模型,测评二者协调发展程度,进而利用计量经济学模型,深入剖析旅游产业与城镇化协调发展的驱动机制。结果表明:2000—2015年福建省新型城镇化和旅游产业综合水平呈现波动增长态势,2013年以前城镇化发展滞后旅游业发展。两者具有显著的耦合协调发展特征,且存在正向的长期均衡关系,短期中,旅游产业对城镇化拥有反向修正作用,旅游产业发展是新型城镇化建设的格兰杰原因,反之不是。研究对促进福建省旅游业与城镇化深入协同发展具有重要意义。

Based on coordinated development mechanism,this paper built the index systems between the new urbanization and tourism industry in Fujian Province,and obtained development indexes,measured the coordinated degree by the coupling model,and then deeply analyzed the couple driving mechanism using the econometric model.The result showed that the both comprehensive development level increased significantly from 2000 to 2010 in Fujian Province,existed coupling interaction,and had positive long-term equilibrium relationship.The new urbanization lagged behind tourism industry before 2013.The tourism industry had a negative correction effect on urbanization in the short term.The tourism industry was Granger cause of the new urbanization,the opposite was not.The research was great significance to promote the indepth and coordinated development of new urbanization and tourism in Fujian Province.