美联储升息对人民币兑美元汇率的影响

The Influence of Fed Rate Raising on RMB Exchange Rate to U.S. Dollar

通过超调模型分析美联储升息对人民币兑美元汇率的影响,认为短期内中美利差是导致人民币贬值的原因,中长期人民币不具备持续贬值的基础。基于理论分析,通过构建回归模型,发现美联储升息决议的宣布对汇率影响不显著,原因在于其给了市场充分时间。面对美国日趋紧缩的货币政策,央行应积极引导市场预期,推出更多的人民币资产,以满足市场需求。

This paper analyzes the impact of the Federal Reserve rate hike on the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar through the overshoot model. This paper argues that in short-term interest spread is the reason for the devaluation of the exchange rate. In long-term exchange rate is determined by the level of economic development. There is no basis for the continuous depreciation of the RMB. Based on the theoretical analysis, through the regression model, the study found that the Federal Reserve interest rate decision announcement's impact on the exchange rate is not significant.This paper argues that because the Federal Reserve give the market enough time to prepare. In the face of the tightening monetary policy of the United States, the central bank should actively guide the market expectations, and introduce more RMB assets to market.