基于FVCOM的宁波-舟山海域溶解型危化品泄漏扩散模拟

Diffusion simulation of leakage of dissolved hazardous chemicals in NingboZhoushan waters based on FVCOM

基于FVCOM数值模型,以宁波-舟山海域相关实测资料为支撑,选取环氧氯丙烷为典型溶解型危化品,模拟该海域突发溶解型危化品泄漏后的扩散行为。模拟结果表明,从不同事故等级来看,一般事故和较大事故危化品泄漏24 h后,环氧氯丙烷浓度基本扩散至安全浓度(0.02 mg/L)以下,重大事故泄漏24 h后仍存在较大(30~190 km2)超安全浓度污染水域;从不同扩散潮时来看,落潮时刻扩散快于涨潮时刻,落潮时刻扩散至安全浓度以下较涨潮时刻快2~6 h;从不同泄漏点来看,册子水道扩散快于镇海码头,其中在册子水道泄漏时,基本沿水道扩散,在镇海码头泄漏时,易在北仑区沿岸、北仑和大榭岛之间滞留。

Based on FVCOM numerical model and with the support of relevant measurement materials at Ningbo-Zhoushan waters,the Epoxy Chloropropane has been selected as typical dissolved hazardous chemical substance to simulate the diffusion after the emergent leakage of hazardous chemical substance in the waters.According to different grades of the accidents,as is indicated by the simulation result,the concentration of epoxy chloropropane will be diffused to below safe concentration（0. 02 mg/L） after 24 hours of leakage for ordinary and relatively big accidents. As to major accidents,however,there are still large areas of waters（30 ~ 190 km2） which have been polluted with concentration exceeding the safe limit after 24 hours of leakage. From the aspect of different tides time at diffusion,the diffusion is faster at ebb tide than at flood tide,and the diffusion process to below safe concentration at ebb tide is 2 to 6 hours faster than at flood tide.From the aspect of different regions of leakage,the diffusion at Cezi channel is faster than at Zhenhai port.The pollutants are basically diffused along the water channels when the leakage occurs at Cezi channel,and they will be detained along the bank of Beilun district and at Beilun and Daxie Island when the leakage occurs at Zhenahi port.