M型结构的形成:1955—1978年地方分权与地方工业的兴起

The Formation of the M-form Structure:Regional Decentralization and the Rise of Local Industry in 1955—1978

本文实证考察了我国计划经济时期历次经济分权的特征和趋势,以及经济分权对地方工业兴起的短期和长期影响。我们发现,从1955年至1978年,虽然中央和地方的权力关系几经"放权—收权"循环,自20世纪60年代中期开始经济分权以不可逆的方式朝着有利于地方的方向倾斜,这个趋势在地—县分权关系中表现尤为明显。回归分析表明,省内经济分权显著刺激了地方工业企业的进入,其影响主要发生在净上解省,而在净补贴省则不明显。进一步的考察发现,中国的地方工业在前30年若干次分权浪潮之下经历了一个地理上和产业上不断分散的过程。初步的证据揭示地方工业的分散与地方分权有着密切关联。综合这些分析结果,我们可以看到,经济分权与地方工业的兴起、地方工业的分散相互作用,最终形成了改革开放之初所面临的M型结构。最后,我们考察了计划经济时期地方分权所带来的长期影响,发现地方分权对于20世纪八九十年代乃至于当前的地区经济发展均产生了持续性的正向影响。

This paper empirically examines the patterns of China＇s regional decentralization during the planned regime and their short-term impacts on the rise of local industry and long-term impacts on economic development during the reform era. We find that while it experienced several cycles of decentralization and centralization during the planned regime, China had moved steadily towards increasing decentralization since mid-1960s, and this trend exhibited more prominently in the prefecture-county relations. Our regressional analysis shows that within-province decentralization significantly contributes to the entry of local industrial firms, and this positive effect mainly exists for those provinces with net-submission of fiscal income to the center. We also detect a clear trend of industrial and geographical dispersion of local firms over time during the planned regime. There is preliminary evidence indicating a close linkage between regional decentralization and industrial disaggregation. All of these findings lend empirical support for the ＂M-form hypothesis＂ about the structure of the Chinese economy during the planned regime. Lastly we provide evidence on the long-term effects of regional decentralization in several waves on subsequent regional economic development during the reform era.