人口转变、移民和绅士化--一座欧洲城市再城市化早期信号的解释

Demographic transition, immigration,gentrification: Unravelling early signs of re-urbanisation in a European city

经过长期的郊区化之后,人们近期在南欧观察到了再城市化的早期迹象,这里是2007—2008年经济危机影响最严重的地区之一。随着经济衰退,人口动态受到了多种驱动因素的影响,包括由于绅士化导致内城区吸引力的提升、移民大量增加,以及城市中央核心区相对外围区而言的经济重新极化(re-polarisation)。本文鉴定了不同人口群体(未婚和离异本土人口、传统家庭及外来居民)以及不同年龄群体对意大利罗马自治市三个大区域(历史中心、并入区和郊区)115个区的中期(2006—2015)人口增长(或减少)所产生的影响。研究结果大致显示了复杂、非线性的人口动态,人口增长与减少的地区分散在各个城市区域。外来人口以及未婚和离异的本土人口在历史城市中心和郊区有所增长。并入区的本土人口有所下降,这里是已婚人口倾向选择的居住地。罗马再城市化的证据相对混杂,表明社会隔离过程在形成人口动态方面具有重要作用。居民人口空间分布的变化及其主要人口成分揭示了都市层面的近期人口增长和下降趋势,为管控城市扩张的政策提供了相关的信息。

After long-lasting suburbanisation, early signs of re-urbanisation have been recently observed in southern Europe, one of the regions most affected by the 2007 – 2008 crisis. With recession, population dynamics have been influenced by multiple drivers, including the increased attractiveness of inner cities as a result of gentrification, massive immigration,and the economic re-polarisation of centralcores with respect to peripheral zones. This study identifies the contribution of different population groups(unmarried and divorced native people, traditional families, non-native residents) and age groups to medium-term(2006–2015) demographic growth(or decline)in 115 districts(historic centre, compact urban area, suburbs) of the municipality of Rome,Italy. Results outline complex and non-linear population dynamics with growing and declining districts scattered across the urban area. Non-native people as well as unmarried and divorced native residents increased in the historical city and in suburban areas. Native population decreased in consolidated urban districts, the preferred location of married people. The evidence for re-urbanisation in Rome is relatively mixed and suggests the importance of processes of social segregation in shaping population dynamics. Variations in the spatial distribution of the resident population and its main demographic components reveal recent trends of growth and decline on the metropolitan scale, producing relevant information for policies governing urban expansion.