北京市夏季日最大电力负荷与气象因子的关系

Relationship between daily maximum electric power load and meteorological factors in summer in Beijing

利用2006—2013年北京市逐日15 min电力负荷资料及北京平原地区6个人工气象观测站(朝阳、海淀、丰台、石景山、观象台、昌平)的气象要素观测资料,分析北京市电力负荷时间和空间的变化特征及其夏季(6—8月)日最大电力负荷与各种气象因子的关系,采用剔除逐日最大电力负荷、历年夏季最大电力负荷极值及历年夏季最大电力负荷平均值的变化趋势项3种方法提取气象负荷并进行对比,进一步研究累积气象因子与夏季气象负荷的相关性。结果表明:2006—2013年北京电力负荷呈逐渐增长的趋势,电力负荷年变化和日变化均呈"双峰型"。北京全市及各区最大电力负荷多数出现在夏季,部分地区最大电力负荷出现在冬季(11月至翌年2月),朝阳和海淀地区夏季最大电力负荷明显高于其他地区。北京市夏季日最大电力负荷与闷热指数及平均气温的相关性最好;气象负荷与气象因子的相关性好于原始负荷,且剔除夏季日最大电力负荷平均值变化趋势项获得的气象负荷优于其他方法;当气象因子累积2 d时,夏季气象负荷对气象因子的变化最敏感。

Based on dally electrical load data in Beijing from 2006 to 2013 and meteorological observation data in Beijing plain areas including Chaoyang, Haldian, Fengtal, Shijingshan, Beijing Meteorological Observatory, and Changping, the spatial and temporal characteristics of electrical load and the relationship between summer maximum electrical load and meteorological factors were analyzed. Three methods were used to extract meteorological load. The correlation between meteorological factors and summer meteorological load was also analyzed. The re- suits show that dally electrical loads increased linearly from 2006 to 2013. The patterns of annual and hourly varia- tions both present obvious ＂bimodal pattern＂. Usually, the maximum electrical load appears in summer, but in some districts,it appears in winter. Electrical loads in Chaoyang and Haldian districts are significantly higher than those in other areas. The maximum electrical load in summer in Beijing significantly correlates with temperature humidity index and dally mean temperature. The correlation coefficients between meteorological factors and meteorological load are higher than those between meteorological factors and original load. The extraction method based on eliminating summer mean maximum variation trend is better than other methods. When the accumulated meteorological factors amount to 2 days, the summer meteorological load is the most sensitive to the meteorological factors.