气象条件对辽宁省高速公路交通安全的影响研究

Effects of meteorological conditions on highway traffic safety in Liaoning province

选取2010—2015年辽宁地区包含事故位置、等级、发生时间、环境条件等信息的高速公路交通事故数据,采用序关系分析法将事故数量和等级量化为高速公路事故指数。匹配事故发生地点临近的气象站点观测数据,分析了高速事故发生时间特征及与气象要素相关性,并利用气象要素通过逐步回归方法对高速事故指数进行模拟。结果表明:辽宁省高速公路事故高发年份气候特征为降水偏多、日照时数偏少。冬季因天气诱发的高速事故数量最多、平均事故指数最大,其中相对湿度、降水量与冬季事故指数关系最为密切。对事故指数进行预测的结果显示:秋季、冬季重特大级别事故的预测准确率较好,准确率分别达到62.5%和51.3%。

Based on highway traffic accident data from 2010 to 2015 in Liaoning province, including geographic position, level of accident and environmental condition, highway traffic accident index was quantified based on the level and the number of accidents using order relation analysis method. By matching the accident location with the nearest meteorological observation station, correlation relationship between meteorological factors and traffic accident number was analyzed. A stepwise regression analysis was proposed to estimate highway traffic accident index based on meteorological factors. The results show that the years with high frequency of highway traffic accidents are characterized by more precipitation and less sunshine hours. The number of accidents caused by weather and average highway traffic accident index are the largest in winter. The correlation relationship between highway traf- fic accident index and relative humidity （or precipitation）is better than that with other meteorological factors. The stepwise regression method is used for simulating highway accident index based on meteorological factors. It suggests that the prediction accurate rates of major accidents in winter and autumn are higher than those in other seasons, and they are 62.5 % and 51.3 %, respectively.