基于B-S期权定价的安吉县CCER竹林经营碳汇项目经济效益评估

Economic benefit assessment of CCER bamboo forest management carbon sequestration in Anji County based on B-S option pricing model

【目的】考虑到竹林经营碳汇项目在投资过程中易遭受众多不确定性因素影响,在此利用模型准确核算浙江安吉县竹林经营碳汇项目的经济效益。【方法】以首个中国核证减排量(CCER)安吉县竹林经营碳汇项目为例,通过对竹林经营碳汇项目进行实地调查,基于B-S(Black-Scholes)期权定价模型,在考虑未来CCER碳汇交易价格不确定因素下,准确核算项目周期内安吉县CCER竹林经营碳汇项目的成本、收益及经济效益。【结果】安吉县CCER竹林经营碳汇项目共经营竹林1 426.27 hm2,30年项目周期内实现减排量为249 658 t,以目前CCER平均交易价格33元/t计,安吉县CCER竹林经营碳汇项目的期权价值为29 952.31万元,其中碳汇收益累计现值为588.57万元,竹材和竹笋收益累计现值为22 675.20和3 125.98万元,比传统经营分别提高55.97%和13.12%;项目周期内每公顷经济效益为21.00万元,年均经济效益为998.41万元,高于净现值核算结果。【结论】竹林经营碳汇项目开展过程中碳汇交易价格、宏观政策、竹材竹笋价格、劳动力价格等多因素会变动,采用期权定价模型同时考虑多种因素核算碳汇项目经济效益比传统净现值法更为合理。安吉县CCER竹林经营碳汇项目的开展,不但能给农户带来额外的碳汇收益,而且传统竹材、竹笋的收益大幅提高,在发挥林业缓解气候变化作用的同时,可实现林农的多重增收。

【Objective】Carbon sequestration in bamboo forest management is susceptible to much uncertainty in the investing process,thus the author utilized a model to precisely calculate the economic benefit of carbon sequestration in bamboo forest management in Anji County,Zhejiang Province. 【Method 】The author used the B-S（ Black-Scholes）option pricing model to accurately calculate the cost,earning potential,and economic benefit of a carbon sequestration project cycle during CCER bamboo forest management. 【Result 】The carbon sequestration project in Anji manages1 426.27 hm2 of bamboo forest in total,achieving 249 658 t of emission reductions in the scope of a 30-year project cycle. According to the average transaction price in the CCER market,which is 33 yuan per ton at present,the option value of the CCER bamboo forest carbon sequestration project in Anji is projected to be 29 952.31 ten thousand yuan,among which the cumulative present value of carbon sequestration earning is 588.57 ten thousand yuan. The cumulative present value of bamboo and bamboo shoot yield is 22 675.20 ten thousand yuan and 3 125.98 ten thousand yuan,showing 55. 97% and 13. 12% improvement by contrast with the traditional management mode,respectively. The economicearning was 21 ten thousand yuan per hectare within the project cycle and annual average economic earning was 998.41 ten thousand yuan per year,higher than the values obtained by net present value method. 【Conclusion】This bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project is susceptible to changes in transaction prices of carbon sequestration,macro policy,the price of bamboo and bamboo shoots,labor prices and other factors. Using the B-S option pricing model and considering many factors simultaneously to calculate the economic benefit of the carbon sequestration project is more realistic than using the traditional net present value method. The CCER bamboo forest management carbon sequestration project in Anji can not only bring farmers additional carbon sequestration benefits,but also massively increases the revenue from bamboo and bamboo shoots. Given the role of forestry in mitigating climate change,the carbon sequestration project will lead to multiple revenue increases for forest farmers.