鸭绿江云峰水库以上流域可能最大暴雨研究

Probable maximum precipitation in the Yalu River basin above Yunfeng dam

以云峰水库坝址以上鸭绿江流域可能最大暴雨为研究对象,针对鸭绿江流域朝鲜侧气象水文资料缺失的问题,提出了鸭绿江流域地面雨量观测信息与卫星遥感降水信息融合的方法,用于补充流域朝鲜侧降雨等值线图。分别采用放大法和移置法对设计流域可能最大暴雨进行计算,其中放大法推求的3 d可能最大暴雨结果为256.5mm,而移置法推求结果为203.2 mm。经比选,将放大法推求的可能最大暴雨作为推荐成果,并与本流域历史暴雨资料及国内已有可能最大暴雨研究成果进行对比,认为计算结果合理可靠。研究成果可为无资料地区可能最大暴雨估算提供参考。

This paper provides a method for merging precipitation observation data with satellite remote sensing data to supplement the precipitation contour map with the North Korea side of the Yalu River, a region lacking the meteorological and hydrological data, focusing on estimation of the probable maximum precipitation（PMP） in the basin above Yunfeng dam. An enlargement method and a transposition method are used separately to calculate this PMP. The three-day PMP estimated by the enlargement method is 256.5 mm, while its estimation by the transposition method is 203.2 mm. By detailed comparison, the former estimation is recommended by this study. This estimation is reasonable and reliable if it is compared with the historical precipitation data in this basin and previous studies on the PMP in China. The results would help estimate PMP for ungauged regions.