汇率波动的逻辑

The Logic of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

近期美元指数已经攀升至阶段高点。本文认为货币政策差异与避险情绪升温主导了近期美元的强势表现。但中长期看,由于联邦政府“双赤字”问题、全球货币政策走向统一的趋势,以及美国资产对全球资金的吸引力将逐渐减弱等问题,美元反弹难以持续。

The US dollar index has climbed to a recent high. This article contends that risk aversion and differences in the monetary policies of major economies have been the key drivers of the US dollar＇s advance But over the medium to long term, it will be difficult to sustain the dollar＇s ascent due to the US federal budget deficit and the current account deficit （often referred to as the twin deficits）, increasingly synchronized global monetary policies, and the reduced attractiveness of US dollar assets to global funds.