经济政策不确定性、政府隐性担保与企业杠杆率分化

Economic Policy Uncertainty,Implicit Guarantee and Divergence of Corporate Leverage Rate

利用Baker et al.(2013)的经济政策不确定性指标(EPU)与上市公司2003—2014年间的季度数据,本文分析近年来国企与非国有企业杠杆率的走势分化。研究发现:第一,EPU指数每增加1个标准差,国有企业的杠杆率增加2.05个百分点,非国企则下降1.35个百分点;第二,在金融抑制更强的地区,上述差异更加明显;第三,考虑刺激政策、经济不确定性、规模歧视等因素后,结果依然稳健,且在较长期内依然存在。本文强调"去杠杆"的结构优化,并从政策沟通、金融改革等新角度提出了政策建议。

The leverage rate of SOE is rising while leverage rate of nonSOE is decreasing in China since financial crisis.Employing news-based economic policy uncertainty（EPU）index and quarterly financial data of listed firms from 2003 to 2014,we confirmed the heterogeneity effects of EPU.It is found that with an increase in EPU of one standard error,in the next quarter,the leverage rate of SOEs will increase by 2.05 percent points,while leverage rate of non-SOEs will drop 1.35 percent points.It is more so in financial repressed areas,and remains significant after controlling for economic uncertainty and size discrimination.The structure optimization of leverage is emphasized in this paper and policy suggestions as improving policy communication and enhancing financial liberalization are offered.