重工业优先发展战略对经济发展的长期影响——基于历史投入产出表的理论和实证研究

The Long-run Effect of Heavy Industrial Oriented Development Strategy:Evidence from Input-Output Analysis

基于古典多部门分析框架,本文在新编制的中国1957—1973年历史投入产出表的基础上,从理论和经验两方面研究了重工业基础对轻工业技术选择的影响。研究发现,重工业基础没有改变轻工业技术演进的方向,但对轻工业技术效率产生了正面影响。分解结果表明,1957—1992年的技术效率变化中,1957—1973年重工业技术系数变化贡献了34.3%,1973—1987年重工业技术系数变化贡献了-14.1%,而1973—1987年轻工业技术系数变化贡献了55.8%。对于发展中国家,尽管优先发展重工业对技术效率提升有一定作用,但符合比较优势的轻工业技术的发展才是经济增长的核心动力。

This paper theoretically and empirically discussed the effect of heavy industrial foundation on optimal technology selection of light industries,based on the newly compiled China historical input-output tables（1975—1973）and a multi-sector analytical framework.Our results show that heavy industrial foundation had not affected the direction of technological progress but raised the efficiency of light industries.A structural decomposition analysis shows that in the total effect of the change of technological coefficients on economic growth,the change of heavy industrial coefficients in 1957—1973 contributed 34.3% of the total effect,while the changes of heavy industrial and light industrial coefficients in 1973—1987 contributed-14.1% and 55.8%,respectively.For the developing countries,although heavy industrial oriented development strategy has positive effect on technological inefficiency,but the development of light industries that satisfy comparative advantage condition is the key driver of economic growth.