私人部门信贷约束与资本流动--基于跨国面板的数据分析

Credit constraints in the private sector and capital flows——based on cross country panel data analysis

本文在文献分析和理论分析的基础上,利用159个国家和地区1970-2015年面板数据来研究私人部门的信贷约束和资本流动的关系。在通过了一系列稳健性检验后,本文得出如下结论:较强的私人部门信贷约束,将会使得不受信贷约束的部门资本供给过剩,从而使得该部门利率较低,当资本账户开放时,资本更倾向流入金融摩擦小的发达国家,特别是对于非OECD国家而言更是如此。因此本文建议,当一国金融市场不完备时,不应急于开放本国资本账户,而是要先对内进行金融体制改革。

Based on the literature analysis and theoretical analysis, this paper utilizes panel data from 159 countries and regions to study the relationship between private sector credit constraints and capital flows. After a series of robust check, this paper concludes that when the credit constraint in the private sector is strong, it will oversupply the capital in the sector which is not subject to credit constraints, so that the interest rate of that sector is lower, when the capital account is open, capital is more prone to flow to developed countries with small financial frictions, which is especially for non-OECD countries. Therefore, we suggests that a country should not rush to open its capital account, when its financial market is not complete, instead it should first reform its internal financial system.