基于改进的突变评价法在旱灾风险评价中的应用

Application of Improved Catastrophe Appraisal Method in Drought Risk Evaluation

文章以辽宁省2008年各市区的旱灾风险评价为例,利用模型进行总体评价研究,并将评价结果与模糊综合评价法和传统突变法的计算结果进行对比分析,研究表明:运用本研究所构建模型进行旱灾风险评价分析,其旱灾风险值评价结果分布状况与实际情况保持良好的一致性,能够较为清晰和准确地对各风险值的大小和等级进行表征。

Taking appraisal for the drought risk of each urban area in Liaoning Province in 2008 as the example,the model was used to conduct general appraisal and research in this study,comparing the evaluated results with the results obtained with fuzzy evaluation method and traditional catastrophe method. It appears that： using the model constructed in this study to analyze the drought risk appraisal,the distribution state of drought risk evaluation results can exactly consist with the facts and can characterize the grade of each risk value clearly and correctly.