汇率变动对出口贸易影响弱化的另一个解释：全球价值链视角

Another Explanation of the Weakening Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Export Trade: From the Perspective of Global Value Chain

文章检验了我国出口汇率弹性的变动趋势,发现人民币汇率变动对我国出口贸易的影响总体上呈现弱化的过程。通过构建微观分析框架,深入剖析了全球价值链嵌入削弱汇率变动后出口效应的理论机制,并利用我国数据进行了实证检验,结果表明全球价值链参与程度对我国出口的直接影响有限,而中间品进口与中间品出口均削弱了汇率变动对出口的影响,其削弱程度与全球价值链嵌入程度呈正比。比较而言,中间品进口对汇率变动后出口效应的影响力要强于中间品出口的影响力,但人民币汇率变动对出口贸易影响弱化的原因却在于我国中间品出口的大幅增长。因此在生产全球化背景下,央行汇率政策制定的预期中需要考虑全球价值链参与因素。

By examining the trend of China＇ s export exchange rate elasticity, this paper reveals the decreasing impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China＇s export. Through constructing a micro analytical framework, this paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of how the participation in GVC weakens the export effect after the exchange rate changes and conducts an empirical test based on the data of China. The results indicate that the global value chain participation （GVC participation） has little direct impact on China＇ s exports, but the import and export of intermediate goods both weaken the influence of the exchange rate changes on export. The weakening degree is proportional to GVC participation. Comparatively speaking, the effect of the import of intermediate goods on export effect after the exchange rate changes is stronger than that of the export of intermediate goods. However, the reason why the influence of RMB exchange rate changes on export decreases lies in the substantial increase of the export of China＇s intermediate goods. Therefore, in the context of the production globalization, the Monetary Authority needs to take GVC participation into consideration when making exchange rate policies.