基于Markov和Logistic模型的高教规模预测问题的研究

Study on Predicting Higher Education Scale Based on Markov and Logistic

利用数学建模的方法研究高等教育规模的预测问题。运用层次分析法确定学生入学率、教育的投入、接受高等教育的总人数在高等教育规模中的贡献程度,并利用熵值取权法对权重的进行修正,得到较为合理的权重系数。接着,基于统计思想,利用Markov性模型,借助于MATLAB软件,对高等教育规模的变化程度进行分析和预测,得出未来十年的高等教育规模的变化趋势总体上是增长的,但增长程度是渐缓的。最后,利用逻尔斯基模型作为经验公式,并借助于已有数据进行非线性回归,得到高等教育规模与时间的函数关系,并由此模型预测了2017—2026年的高等教育规模值。

Aim study predicting problem of higher education scale.Method with mathematical modeling.Result use analytic hierarchy process to make sure enrollment rate,investment of education and how much those received higher education contributed in higher education scale;entropy weight method was used to modify eight to get reasonable weight coefficient.In the following,based on statistical thinking,change extent of higher education was analyzed and predicated by Markov model and MATLAB software,so as to get the result that the changing trend of higher education in the following years is increasing on the total,but increasing speed is low.At last,withLorski model,the existing data was under nonlinear regression to get function relationship between higher education scale and time,so the model is used to predict higher education scale from 2017 to 2026.Conclusion supplement is for predecessors＇ results.