陆路交通基础设施对农业产出的空间溢出效应

Spatial Spillover Effects of Land Transport Infrastructure on Agricultural Output across China

运用2000—2015年中国地级市面板数据,基于空间杜宾模型分析中国陆路交通基础设施在2000—2015年以及2000—2004,2005—2010,2011—2015年不同时段对农业产出的空间溢出效应。结果表明:(1)农业产出水平在空间上存在显著的空间依赖,且Moran’s I指数高值区主要集中在东部和中部地区。(2)在2000—2015年整个时间段内公路和铁路同时存在正向和负向的溢出效应,且公路溢出小于铁路溢出。公路形成以不同地市为核心的核心外围结构溢出效应,而铁路形成以不同省份交界为核心的核心外围结构,其溢出均随圈层的扩展而逐渐减小并呈负向显著。(3)2000—2004年公路和铁路的溢出效应均不显著;2005—2010年公路呈核心外围的正向溢出,铁路的溢出仍不显著;2011—2015年公路和铁路对农业产出均有显著溢出,均呈明显的圈层和带状结构的溢出效应,且以各省份内的地市为核心向周围地区扩散,溢出效应随圈层向外围扩展而减小并呈负向显著;通过对比,公路溢出小于铁路溢出,且公路溢出随时间变化呈增大趋势。

This paper focusing on empirically measuring the spatial spillover effects of land transport infrastructure on agricultural output by applying a Spatial Dubin Model for the time period of 2000—2015,and also three sub-periods of 2000—2004,2005—2010,2011—2015. The results indicate that： Firstly,the significant spatial dependency of agricultural output exists in space,and the high value areas concerntrate in the eastern and central region. Secondly,road and railway both have positive and negative spillover effects on agricultural output. Moreover,the spillover effects of road and railway both in a core-periphery structure in 2000—2015. At the same time,the spillover effects of railway is bigger than road. Thirdly,From different sub-periods,the spillover effects of road and railway are insignificant in 2000—2004; there is significant positive effects of road in a core-periphery structure in 2005—2010,and the spillover effects of road in the core is bigger than the periphery,however,the spillover effects of railway is still insignificant; In 2011—2015,road and railway both exist positive and negative effects at the same period,which will be a circle and banded structure,which core is the city in province,it will be increasingly lower with the expansion from the core to the peripheral,and it will be negative in peripheral. From a statistical point of view,the spillover effects of road is increasing from 2000 to 2015,but it＇s still smaller than railway.