城市用地扩张和经济发展的协整性与因果关系分析——以河南省为例

Cointegration and Causality Relationship between Urban Land Expansion and Economic Development: Taking Henan Province as An Example

城市发展是一个长期、复杂的过程,城市化过程往往具有阶段性,主要通过城市扩张与经济发展表现出来。基于生态位理论,结合库兹涅茨曲线、协整检验及Granger因果分析和脱钩关系等方法对2004—2015年河南省18个地级市城市用地扩张与经济发展的协整性与因果关系进行分析。结果表明:(1)河南省城市生态位呈核心-边缘趋势向外围扩展;(2)除平顶山市、安阳市、濮阳市和南阳市的城市用地扩张与经济发展关系不明显外,其余城市均呈"U"型或倒"U"型的库兹涅茨曲线关系;(3)河南省城市用地扩张与经济发展间的协调性在一定程度上受社会体制、政府政策、决策等的影响;(4)河南省18个地市均不存在衰弱性脱钩现象,除2015年的许昌外其余城市的城市用地扩张与经济发展间均不存在弱复钩现象。

Urban development is a long-term and complex process. Such process often progresses in stages through the expansion of urban land and internal re-structuring of urban land use. Using 18 cities in Henan Province over the period between 2004 and 2015 as a case study,the paper classified the urbanization processes of the cities into 4 categories by using 3 methods that were based on economic development,expansion of urban lands,and interactions with other cities. Based on fundamental niche models,our analysis found that：（ 1） High niche cities in Henan cluster around Zhengzhou with an east-west orientation. Mid-level niche cities are mostly in the northern Henan spreading in a north-south orientation. Low niche cities are in the eastern part of the province.（ 2）Other than Pingdingshan City,Anyang City,Puyang City and Nanyang City,cities in Henan show U-shaped of Kuznets curve.（ 3） Most cities in Henan show long term expansion with short term fluctuations,possibly due to local socio-economic structures and developmental policies by local governments.（ 4） Based on the decoupling theory,cities classified as high and middle niche cities have only weak expansion in terms of build-up areas and economic development. Cities classified as low niche cities seem to have increased in numbers.