环境规制与中国城市工业SO_2减排

Environmental Regulation and Urban Industrial SO_2 Emission Reduction in China

使用Laspeyres分解方法对2004—2008,2008—2013年中国工业SO_2减排进行分解得到规模、结构和技术效应,并分析3种效应减排量的时空变化。构建面板数据模型,探讨SO_2减排不同类型环境规制和减排效应的影响。结果表明:(1)规模和技术效应是加剧和减少SO_2排放的主要途径,技术效应对规模效应的补偿是SO_2减排的重要原因。(2)"两控区"政策在第一时段显著促进SO_2减排,第二时段不再显著,命令型规制效力有所降低。(3)两个时段排污收费均能有效抑制规模效应导致的污染增加,显示市场型规制效力稳健。(4)市场型规制与技术效应存在协同作用,验证了"波特假说"。"十三五"时期我国计划SO_2总量减排15%,因地制宜调整环境规制类型与强度是实现减排目标的重要途径。

This paper uses the Laspeyres Index Decomposition method to decompose Chinese industrial SO2 emission during 2004—2008 and 2008—2013 into three effects： scale effect,structural effect and technical effect.The temporal and spatial changes of the three effects are analyzed,and robust regression model is applied to explore the impacts of different types of environmental regulations and the three kinds of emission reduction effects on SO2 emission reduction. The results show that：（ 1） Scale and technical effect are the main factors to increase and decrease emission,respectively. The compensation of technical effect to scale effect is the main way of SO2 emission reduction.（ 2） The ＂Two Control Zones＂policy can significantly promote SO2 emission reduction in the first period,while in the second period it cannot promote emission reduction.（ 3） In both periods,the pollution charge policy can effectively restrain the emission caused by the increase of industrial scale. This phenomenon indicates the effectiveness of market oriented regulation.（ 4） The synergistic effect of pollution charge policy and technical effect had been observed in both periods which indicates that market oriented environmental regulations are essential for environmental technology innovation. In the 13 th Five-Year Plan,China is willing to reduce 15% of SO2 emission,this research suggests that adjusting the type and strength of environmental regulations based on regional characteristics are crucial for urbans to achieve the goal of SO2 emission reduction.