农地流转市场发育的微观机制——来自中国家庭追踪调查的证据

Micro-mechanism of the Development of Rural Land Transfer Market: Evidence from Chinese Family Tracing Surveys

从影响农户收入、就业、生存等方面的因素出发,以市场供给和需求为主线,构建农地流转市场发育的微观驱动机制分析框架,并在此框架下利用中国家庭追踪调查数据中的24个省份的农户农地流转数据,选择合适的指标构建模型,采用Logistic模型从农地流入和农地转出两个层面进行案例研究。结果表明:(1)农户主要是通过农户自身特征、区位条件、对农业生产的依赖程度、商业保险购买额度等方面的传导,对收入、就业和生存对农地流转供给和需求产生影响,进而影响到农地流转市场发育。(2)农户家庭特征(农户文化程度、健康水平和劳动力数量)、区位条件、对农业生产的依赖程度、商业保险购买额度对农地流转市场发育产生显著影响。家庭人口数、农户健康状况、农业依赖程度和区位条件对农户土地流出有负向影响,农户文化程度、商业保险、地貌类型对农户土地流出有正向影响;影响农户土地流入的因素只有家庭人口数、农户健康状况、地貌类型、农业依赖程度对之产生正向影响。

This paper analyses the spatial and temporal variation and the influencing factors of farmland transfer by using the farmland transfer data of Chinese family tracing survey in 24 provinces. In the process of analyzing the influencing factors of farm land transfer,this paper establishes Logistic regression model of farmland inflow and outflow. In the end,this paper put forward some suggestions to accelerate the transfer of agricultural land. The main conclusions are as follows：（ 1） Rural land transfer level is not high and the differences in the rate of farm transfer between regions are obvious. The eastern region has the highest rate of farm transfer,followed by the central region,and the western region the lowest; in addition,there are also differences within the region.（ 2） The empirical results show that the health condition of farmers,family size,family farm income,the nearest commercial center have a negative impact on the farm land outflow,and commercial health insurance expenditure,rural geomorphology and regional virtual variable have a positive impact on farm land outflow. The health condition of farmers,family size,family farm income,and regional virtual variables significantly influence the inflow of farm land,and they all have a positive impact on the inflow of farm land.（ 3） The level of rural land transfer and economic levels are closely related.