内蒙古地区气候生产潜力变化及其敏感性分析

Characteristics and Sensitivity Analysis of Climate Production Potential in Inner Mongolia

利用内蒙古地区110个气象站1961-2016年年平均气温、降水量数据,基于Miami模型和Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算气候生产潜力,分析内蒙古地区年平均气温、年降水量及气候生产潜力的时空变化特征,并通过敏感性试验,分析不同气象要素变化情景下的气候生产潜力敏感性。结果表明:(1)内蒙古气温和降水量地区间差异显著,56a来平均气温显著上升,97%的站点平均气温上升趋势极显著(P<0.01),降水量呈波动变化,其线性变化趋势不显著;(2)气候生产潜力呈东南-西北向的带状分布,地区间差异较大,年变化趋势不显著,呼伦贝尔地区气候生产潜力显著增加(P<0.05);(3)气候生产潜力对降水量更敏感,未来在内蒙古地区显著变暖的背景下,降水量的多寡决定气候生产潜力的变化;(4)粮食单产及气候资源利用率逐步提高,未来仍存在作物增产空间,但应考虑可持续发展问题,合理利用气候资源。

The climatic production potential in Inner Mongolia was assessed by the annual temperature and annual precipitation from 1961 to 2016 based on Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial model. The spatiotemporal variation feature of annual temperature, annual precipitation and climatic production potential（CPP） were analyzed. By sensitivity tests, the potential changes of CPP under different meteorological factors variation were simulated. The results showed that regional differences of annual temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia were both significant. In the past 56 years, the warming trend was significant and 97% of the region had an increasing precipitation（P〈0.01）.Precipitation was fluctuating while the trend of linear change was not significant. The CPP showed the zonal distribution of southeast–northwest and regional differences were significant. But the trend of linear change of annual CPP was not significant except Hulunbuir（P〈0.05）. The CPP was more sensitive to precipitation, which means with the warming trend in Inner Mongolia, its changes determined on the precipitation in the future. The grain yield and the climate resource utilization were gradually improved and there was still space for crop yield increase in the future. However, sustainable development should be taken into consideration, and use climate resources more reasonable.