农村劳动力外出是否有利留守家庭持久脱贫?——基于贫困脆弱性方法的实证分析

The Impacts of the Outflow of the Rural Labor Force on Its Left-behind Household's Economic Condition:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Rural Household's Poverty and Vulnerability

农村贫困问题是关乎全面建成小康社会的基础性问题。党的十九大报告指出,要确保到2020年我国现行标准下农村贫困人口全部实现脱贫。而分析农村劳动力外出务工对留守家庭的贫困脆弱性影响,对回答好按期实现脱贫目标这一命题具有重要的理论和现实意义。一方面,贫困脆弱性方法能够对贫困人口脱贫与非贫困人口返贫共同进行描述,克服了传统研究方法中只关注当期收入(消费)贫困问题的缺点;另一方面,研究农村劳动力外出务工对留守家庭的影响能够帮助扶贫工作更好地借助农村人口的内生动力,提高扶贫的效率。为了控制劳动力禀赋差异导致的误判,研究中利用了倾向得分匹配法和倍差法进行分析。研究结果表明,在不同的贫困线标准下(1美元、1.25美元和2美元),劳动力外出都能显著降低家庭的贫困脆弱性,该结论对于暂时性贫困人群、慢性贫困人群和全体样本都成立,具有稳健性。为了更好地帮助农村家庭持久脱贫,充分利用农村人口脱贫的内生动力,党和政府应该将有序引导农村劳动力流动作为扶贫规划的重要内容,积极为农村劳动力提高人力资本提供必要的公共服务,为外出务工劳动力提供适宜的社会保障服务,打赢脱贫攻坚战,实现乡村繁荣。

Rural poverty is substantial to building a moderately prosperous society in all respects.The 19 th Party Congress Report pointed out that China has entered a decisive stage in completing building a moderately prosperous society and by 2020 all poor rural populations should get rid of poverty with the governmental assistance.This research on the outflow of the rural labor force carries both practical and theoretical significance in directing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects.Compared to the traditional research on this issue,this research examined those factors related to both chronic and transient poverty by applying both poverty and vulnerability method,and Propensity Score Matching and Difference-in-Differences methods.The findings indicated that the outflow of the rural labor force has a significant influence on all populations in poverty,and therefore,it is crucially important for all the parties involved in helping eliminate poverty in rural areas to put the outflow of the rural labor force into their first consideration.